Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Ford

Is now a good to to be investing in Ford? I think so. Ford is in the best financial shape of the big three auto companies, which is alot like claiming to be the world's tallest midget, i know, but it does mean something. Now the headlines are say that Ford is trying to become classified as an "Industrial Loan Corporation" in order to access cheap financing because they are burning through cash at an alarming rate.
This has been a horrible year for the auto industry the world over. When's the last time you've heard of an auto company that is making money? I didn't think so. The problem with the American car companies is that they are too quick to react to the ever changing American attitude at the expense of their long term viability. SUV's have been all the rage for the last decade, our American attitude of "I'm a big shot and I'm gonna show it by driving the biggest, most fuel inefficient car I can find; yea I got money to blow!" Unfortunately when gas prices shot to obscene levels, thank you speculators, people simply couldn't afford to drive SUV's at such incredible levels in the price of gas. (A relative of mine drives and Escalade and could not fill up his tank, literally, because the gas station pump won't accept a bill over $100) So what happened, American's, intellectuals that we are, immediately blamed the auto companies for all our woes; "You have been making products that use way too much gasoline; You should've known we'd buy whatever you were selling, we can't be held responsible for our actions!" This and a growing liberally "Go Green!" movement (thank you Al Gore) has lead to big auto trying to switch over to more fuel efficient vehicles, all well and good if we had these things when oil prices where at $150 a barrel, but as all bubbles do, the oil bubble finally popped sending the price of gas back down to earth, and guess what Americans are willing to purchase "regular" cars again. These car companies cannot keep switching back and forth their plants based on the whim of the American public and as a result of this, of course many other factors as well, car companies have lost a tremendous amount of money (yes people are not willing to buy any vehicle now because of the recession, but we'd be foolish to think that mentality is going to continue forever.).
Car companies should try a little clairvoyance and predict what consumers are going to want one year from now because that is when people will be buying.
Anyways, Ford is a good buy because the are going to be the sole survivor here, its going to be the Big 1! They have enough cash and their brand still has enough Cache that is should attract foreign investors, the Chinese will do nicely (and they would love to a foot in this American company). What does this mean to you as an investor? I think it means your getting a big name company at a fire-sale price that if: A. The Chinese buy them out you make money on the takeover or; B. they become the sole survivors in Detroit and gobble up the Market Share that was once held by GM and Chrysler!

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